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	<title>LatIntelligence &#187; human rights</title>
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	<link>http://www.latintelligence.com</link>
	<description>by Shannon K. O'Neil</description>
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		<title>Guest Post: Ríos Montt Plays a Risky Defense Game</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2012/01/24/guest-post-rios-montt-plays-a-risky-defense-game/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2012/01/24/guest-post-rios-montt-plays-a-risky-defense-game/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:58:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Guatemala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Claudia Paz y Paz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Helen Mack]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights trial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rios Montt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[transitional justice]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1661</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
This is a guest post by Natalie Kitroeff, a research associate  here at the Council on Foreign Relations who works with me in the Latin  America program. 
Without fanfare, or so much as a public arrest, this weekend  Guatemala took another historic step toward justice for a genocidal  civil war that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em></p>
<div id="attachment_1660" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1660" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2012/01/24/guest-post-rios-montt-plays-a-risky-defense-game/latinriostrial/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1660" title="latinriostrial" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/latinriostrial.jpg" alt="An indigenous woman passes graffiti depicting former dictator Efrain Rios Montt in Guatemala City (Daniel Leclair/Courtesy Reuters). " width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">An indigenous woman passes graffiti depicting former dictator Efrain Rios Montt in Guatemala City (Daniel Leclair/Courtesy Reuters). </p></div>
<p>This is a guest post by Natalie Kitroeff, a research associate  here at the Council on Foreign Relations who works with me in the Latin  America program. </em></p>
<p>Without fanfare, or so much as a public arrest, this weekend  Guatemala took another historic step toward justice for a genocidal  civil war that took the lives of more than 200,000 innocent, mostly  indigenous civilians. Just a week after losing his diplomatic immunity, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/world/americas/efrain-rios-montt-guatemala-ex-dictator-to-appear-in-court.html?_r=1" target="_blank">General (Ret) Efraín Ríos Montt was ordered to testify in court</a> about his role in abuses that occurred between 1982 to 1983, when he  was de facto President of Guatemala. If judge Patricia Flores decides  there is enough evidence to proceed to trial, Ríos Montt will be  prosecuted on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity (including  626 massacres of civilians in Chimaltenango, Quiché, Huehuetenango and  Baja Verapaz).</p>
<p>Ríos Montt has made his defense quite clear. Over the past month, he  has repeatedly said that he can’t be tried for any human rights  violations because he wasn’t in charge of the military’s on-the-ground  operations as the country’s political leader. His lawyer has echoed  these claims, telling the press recently, “We are sure that there is no  responsibility, since he was never on the battlefield.”</p>
<p>This strategy is a radical new approach in the Guatemalan context.  Until now, the military has consistently denied that genocide was ever a  part of the civil war. Even the current president, Otto Pérez Molina,  said that he doesn’t believe <a href="http://plazapublica.com.gt/content/quiero-que-alguien-me-demuestre-que-hubo-genocidio" target="_blank">the findings of the UN truth commission</a>,  and that he could “prove that [genocide] did not occur,” during the  conflict. But Ríos Montt is now arguing not that the atrocities didn’t  happen, but that he is not culpable.</p>
<p>While this doesn’t yet amount to an open acknowledgement of genocide,  it does suggest that things have changed (if slightly) since the  Association for Justice and Reconciliation (AJR) first brought charges  against Ríos Montt in 1999. The discovery of mass graves by the Forensic  Anthropology Foundation of Guatemala (FAFG) and the tireless work of  victims groups in pushing for trials – finally winning convictions for  four ex-soldiers this year – has made it untenable for the military to  negate the genocide outright, at least in a court of law.</p>
<p>Whether or not the “I didn’t make the call” line of defense will work  remains to be seen. To win, public prosecutors will have to prove that  the army’s brutal scorched earth tactics were part of a coherent state  policy designed by the president (not just the work of individual rogue  officers). This concept of “intellectual authorship” has yet to be  tested in Guatemala, as so far only <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2011/0805/6-060-year-sentence-in-Guatemala-only-a-beginning" target="_blank">low-ranking soldiers</a> – the material authors of the crimes– have ever been convicted for war  crimes (the one exception is Colonel Juan Valencia Osorio, who was  convicted as an intellectual author of <a href="http://www.myrnamack.org.gt/index.php/biografias/helenmack" target="_blank">Myrna Mack’s assassination</a>, but escaped imprisonment and is now a fugitive).</p>
<p>Ríos Montt is also taking a further risk with this legal strategy,  threatening the military chain of command by deflecting responsibility  for wartime violations onto military commanders. His three top officials  are now in police custody, including an ex-minister of defense, an  ex-military chief of staff and an intelligence officer, undoubtedly  alienated from their old boss. As the Chilean and Argentinean justice  processes have shown, once the military turns against itself it becomes  much easier to prosecute human rights violations. Though Guatemalan  prosecutors say they have documents proving a rigid, top-down chain of  command, witness testimony from former high-ranking officers would  certainly boost their case. And if he isn’t careful to maintain military  loyalty, that may be just what Ríos Montt hands them.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil"><strong>Latin America’s Moment</strong></a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Guest Post: Guatemala’s Ex-President Asks About Genocide Trial</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/20/guest-post-guatemala%e2%80%99s-ex-president-asks-about-genocide-trial/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/20/guest-post-guatemala%e2%80%99s-ex-president-asks-about-genocide-trial/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:17:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guatemala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights trial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indigenous]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indigenous rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rios Montt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1615</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a guest post by Natalie Kitroeff, a research associate  here at the Council on Foreign Relations who works with me in the Latin  America program. 
Last Thursday, former de facto President of Guatemala during military rule, General (ret) Efraín Ríos Montt walked into the Attorney General’s office to  ask whether they [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1616" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1616" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/20/guest-post-guatemala%e2%80%99s-ex-president-asks-about-genocide-trial/latinriosmontt/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1616" title="latinriosmontt" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/latinriosmontt.jpg" alt="Former Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt leaves the public prosecutor's office in Guatemala City (Jorge Lopez/Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Former Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt leaves the public prosecutor&#39;s office in Guatemala City (Jorge Lopez/Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p><em>This is a guest post by Natalie Kitroeff, a research associate  here at the Council on Foreign Relations who works with me in the Latin  America program. </em></p>
<p>Last Thursday, former de facto President of Guatemala during military rule, General (ret) <a href="http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/Exjefe-presenta-MP_0_610139003.html" target="_blank">Efraín Ríos Montt walked into the Attorney General’s office</a> to  ask whether they planned on trying him on ten-year-old war crime  charges anytime soon. He stands accused of committing genocide and  crimes against humanity against indigenous civilians in the early 1980s –  the most violent years of the country’s civil war. Flanked by his  lawyer and a gaggle of reporters, he calmly told public prosecutors,  “I’m here, I’m healthy, and I’m not afraid… if there’s a criminal  investigation against me, it should go forth according to due process  and I should stand trial.” While this may seem like an ill-advised move,  it’s actually quite cunning given the weak hand he now holds.</p>
<p>When the new legislature takes office next month, Ríos Montt will  officially lose his congressional seat, and with it his immunity from  prosecution (granted to all members of congress unless they’re removed  by court order).  What’s more, the party he led for over two decades –  the Guatemalan Republican Front (FRG) – is weaker than ever – winning  just <a href="http://resultados2011.tse.org.gt/primeravuelta/index.php" target="_blank">2 percent of the vote</a> in  local elections last September. This is not good news for Ríos Montt,  who has had his differences in the past with incoming president Otto  Perez Molina. Longstanding tension between the two came to a head in  2000 when Perez Molina <a href="http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20111030/domingo/202904/" target="_blank">left army ranks to form his own Patriot Party (PP)</a> after the ruling FRG government denied him a top spot in the military.</p>
<p>The newly strengthened Attorney General’s office may be an even bigger problem for the aging ex-General. With <a href="http://www.plazapublica.com.gt/content/el-camino-de-la-fiscal" target="_blank">Claudia Paz y Paz at the helm this year</a>,  the Public Ministry has shown that it is willing and able to  aggressively pursue his case, convicting four soldiers and charging five  more for their roles in two massacres that occurred on Ríos Montt’s  watch. But if he leaves the country he risks facing an even fiercer  opponent in Spain’s National Court, which issued an international arrest  warrant for Ríos Montt on genocide charges in 2006.</p>
<p>An obvious reason why Ríos Montt turned himself in voluntarily is  that he wants to avoid the embarrassment of a very public arrest. He  also may be angling to get in the good graces of public prosecutors, who  have already detained his third in command, former Chief of Staff  Hector Mario López Fuentes for acts of genocide. He has made clear that  he intends to shed all responsibility onto his subordinates, using the  excuse that he was the political, not the military leader during the  civil war and was not aware of any human rights abuses. Regardless of  his motives, the fact that Ríos Montt has to engage with the charges at  all shows that something may finally be right with Guatemala’s fledgling  justice sector.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Explaining Violence in Mexico</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/05/explaining-violence-in-mexico/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/05/explaining-violence-in-mexico/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Dec 2011 19:21:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drug violence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drug war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felipe Calderon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merida Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weapons]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1597</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are many theories out  there about why we have seen a huge uptick in violence in Mexico – now running close to 25,000 homicides a year. An interesting academic paper by Melissa Dell, PhD candidate at the  Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),  tests one particular  theory – elaborated by Eduardo Guerrero among [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1596" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1596" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/12/05/explaining-violence-in-mexico/latinnetworks/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1596" title="latinnetworks" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/latinnetworks.jpg" alt="Soldiers stand guard in their military vehicle outside a clandestine drug processing laboratory discovered in Zapotlanejo (Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Soldiers stand guard in their military vehicle outside a clandestine drug processing laboratory discovered in Zapotlanejo (Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>There are many theories out  there about why we have seen a huge uptick in violence in Mexico – now running close to <a href="http://www.cnnexpansion.com/economia/2011/07/28/24374-homicidios-en-2010-inegi">25,000 homicides a year.</a> An interesting academic paper by Melissa Dell, PhD candidate at the  Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),  tests one particular  theory – elaborated by <a href="http://www.nexos.com.mx/?P=leerarticulo&amp;Article=2099328">Eduardo Guerrero</a> among others — that the policies spearheaded by Calderón and the PAN  more generally have actually caused the increase in violence.  To do so  she uses statistical models to examine how PAN victories in close  mayoral elections affect violence locally, and whether they have  “spillover effects”, causing traffickers to divert their routes to  neighboring municipalities.</p>
<p>She finds that when a new PAN mayor comes in after a close election,  homicides become 9 percent more likely, and drug traffickers are much  more prone to have confrontations with the police. The movement of drugs  also shifts to nearby towns  — causing an increase in violence there —  confirming the so-called cucaracha, or cockroach, effect.  Dell argues  that government’s policy is behind these statistically significant  differences, and specifically that  the PAN’s decisions — from top to  bottom — to take on drug traffickers more aggressively than other  parties is behind the surge.</p>
<p>This rigorous analysis is extremely helpful, and is the type of work  that academics should be sharing with policymakers on both sides of the  border. Yet we should also be mindful of the limitations.  For one, Dell  only considers locally produced drugs – marijuana, heroin, meth –  leaving out the biggest cash cow, cocaine. Her analysis also exclusively  focuses on drugs and not organized criminal groups’ other businesses  such as extortion, kidnapping and human trafficking (she does nod to  these, but finds no adequate dataset to use). As the business model has  changed, so too have the targets, bringing these criminal groups much  closer to the general population –as customers and as prey.</p>
<p>This leads to the third limitation – the assumption that “more than  85 percent of the [drug] violence consists of people involved in the  drug trade killing each other,” a figure repeated a number of times  without any footnotes. Though this has also been the mantra of the  federal government over the last five years, so far neither the Mexican  government nor outside sources have provided any proof that this is  true. Of the nearly 50,000 drug trade-related deaths since 2006, the  Attorney General’s office has investigated less than 1,000 (and solved  less than 350). Given the shifting commercial interests of the criminals  (bringing them closer to innocent civilians), it seems doubtful that  the deaths are  still almost all between the gangsters themselves, or  that the percentage of bad guys killing bad guys hasn’t changed.   Indeed, as a recent <a href="http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/mexico1111webwcover_0.pdf">Human Rights Watch report</a> points out, there are many cases of misclassification, where the  authorities presume that murder victims are linked to drug traffickers  until proven otherwise (which they rarely are, since the Attorney  General’s office investigates less than 2 percent of the killings). The  rise in extrajudicial killings by the military, also laid out in detail  by Human Rights Watch, further questions these claims.</p>
<p>Finally Dell makes the assumption –  repeated in the press and  elsewhere – that drug-related violence picked up with Calderón and his  “war against narcotraffickers.” But the data show that the <a href="http://www.gov.harvard.edu/files/RiosShirk2011_DrugViolenceReport.pdf">uptick started earlier</a>,  under president Fox, increasing some 40 percent from 2004 to 2005, and  another 25 percent from 2005-2006. This doesn’t necessarily disqualify a  PAN-ista effect (given both Fox and Calderón hail from the same party),  but it needs to be explored more, as the security policies of the two  differed in some respects.</p>
<p>The paper provides some policy suggestions, particularly regarding  how to best use scarce law enforcement resources (for starters, don’t  set up roadblocks). But the other more ominous implication is that if  drug traffickers are rational economic actors, and PAN victories are so  costly for them (in terms of relocating their routes or bringing in  competitors), it makes sense for them to invest up front – and buy more  local elections. As we head into 2012, all should be worried about this  conclusion.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Enrique Peña Nieto’s Campaign Book</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/22/enrique-pena-nieto%e2%80%99s-campaign-book/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/22/enrique-pena-nieto%e2%80%99s-campaign-book/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Nov 2011 17:31:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drug policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Enrique Peña Nieto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felipe Calderon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merida Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1588</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It seems the campaign book so popular in the United States has headed  south of the border. After a recent tour through Washington, DC, and  New York, former governor and likely PRI presidential candidate Enrique  Peña Nieto just released Mexico, the Great Hope. An efficient state for democracy with results. 
Arguing that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1587" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1587" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/22/enrique-pena-nieto%e2%80%99s-campaign-book/latinpenanietobook/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1587" title="latinpenanietobook" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/latinpenanietobook.jpg" alt="Mexican Gov. Enrique Pena Nieto answers reporters' questions at the National Press Club in Washington (Molly Reilly/Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Mexican Gov. Enrique Pena Nieto answers reporters&#39; questions at the National Press Club in Washington (Molly Reilly/Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>It seems the campaign book so popular in the United States has headed  south of the border. After a recent tour through Washington, DC, and  New York, former governor and likely PRI presidential candidate Enrique  Peña Nieto just released <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/primera/38203.html"><em>Mexico, the Great Hope. An efficient state for democracy with results.</em></a><em> </em></p>
<p>Arguing that the successive PAN administrations have left the country  worse for the wear, Peña Nieto lays out his vision for a government  based on guaranteeing citizens’ basic rights (such as security), getting  the economy growing at its full potential, and reaffirming Mexico’s  leadership as an emerging power on the world stage. He calls for a  number of economic reforms, including opening Petróleos Mexicanos  (PEMEX) to private investment (still maintaining state ownership), as  well as widening the tax base and simplifying the tax code. On security,  he favors a more comprehensive strategy geared first and foremost to  reducing the violence.</p>
<p>Most of his positions are quite sensible. Mexico needs to (and is  already starting to) focus on lowering the escalating levels of  violence, as opposed to concentrating on taking down drug kingpins.  Economically, opening up PEMEX would increase foreign investment and  improve Mexico’s overall competitiveness, boosting jobs and growth in  the process. Reforming the tax code would also go a long way to  enhancing and diversifying government revenues and  hopefully make it  easier to start up businesses. But these two  reforms are also  politically difficult — having been on the legislative table for years  now, and repeatedly stymied by Peña Nieto’s own party. If he wins,  perhaps the former governor will be Mexico’s equivalent of a “Nixon in  China” – able to change the dynamics precisely because of his party’s  ties to PEMEX’s union – but that remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Much will also depend on the United States. For Mexico to reach its  economic potential, the United States will have to grow as well, as the  economies today are indelibly intertwined. A U.S. immigration reform –  if it happens — also could change things for Mexico. For all its big  vision, the book makes clear that there is much that needs to happen  during the next presidential term in Mexico to fulfill  this “great  hope.”</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Human Rights Abuses in Mexico’s Drug War</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/15/human-rights-abuses-in-mexico%e2%80%99s-drug-war/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/15/human-rights-abuses-in-mexico%e2%80%99s-drug-war/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 14:54:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corruption]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felipe Calderon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forced disappearance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hillary Clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merida Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[military]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Foreign Policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1573</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last Wednesday, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released its report “Neither Rights Nor Security: Killings, Torture and Disappearances in Mexico’s ‘War on Drugs’.” The report is incredibly thorough – based on two years of research in  the states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Nuevo León and  Tabasco, and incorporating information from over 200 interviews. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1572" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1572" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/11/15/human-rights-abuses-in-mexico%e2%80%99s-drug-war/latinhrw/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1572" title="latinhrw" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/latinhrw.jpg" alt="Photographs of missing people are on display at a square in Queretaro (Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photographs of missing people are on display at a square in Queretaro (Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>Last Wednesday, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released its report <a href="http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/mexico1111webwcover_0.pdf">“Neither Rights Nor Security: Killings, Torture and Disappearances in Mexico’s ‘War on Drugs’.”</a> The report is incredibly thorough – based on two years of research in  the states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Nuevo León and  Tabasco, and incorporating information from over 200 interviews. It  charges Mexican security forces with routinely violating citizens’ most  basic rights during President Felipe Calderón’s six years in office, and  further argues that these horrific tactics are not incidental, but  endemic to the government’s drug war strategy.</p>
<p>Some of the most worrisome statistics and findings include:</p>
<p>·       Formal human rights abuse complaints <strong>increased seven-fold</strong>, from 691 during the 2003-2006 period, to 4,803 from 2007-2010</p>
<p>·       Of some 3,700 military investigations into human rights abuses in the past four years, just 15 &#8211;<strong> less than one half of one percent &#8212; </strong>resulted in convictions</p>
<p>·      Formal complaints of “degrading treatment” – read torture &#8212; at the hands of security forces <strong>more than tripled since 2006</strong></p>
<p>Based on witness testimonies and material evidence in specific cases HRW investigated they find:</p>
<p>·        Law enforcement – including the Army, Navy, Federal Police as well as  local and federal judicial investigative police &#8212; participated in over <strong>170 specific cases of torture</strong> – including beating,    asphyxiating, water boarding, electrically shocking and sexually torturing detainees</p>
<p>·        Others facilitate this torture &#8211;  medical examiners fail to document  signs of physical abuse on detainees, and judges admit confessions and  other evidence acquired through torture, even when the victim protests</p>
<p>·       Law enforcement played a part in <strong>39 “forced disappearances”</strong> and <strong>24 extrajudicial killings</strong> of civilians</p>
<p>After  a meeting with HRW representatives Calderón agreed to investigate the  findings, though he did say that the “main threat to the human rights of  Mexicans is from criminals”.</p>
<p>Why have human rights violations  expanded so drastically?  One explanation lies in the use of the  military.  Armed forces are trained to kill the enemy on the  battlefield, not police neighborhoods to ensure basic public safety.  With some 50,000 soldiers now on the front-lines of the drug war, this  disconnect can lead to abuses of the rule of law.</p>
<p>Another reason  is the profound weakness of Mexico’s judicial system.  Most crimes –  likely 80 plus percent &#8212; are never even reported. Of the few complaints  filed, the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) investigates only one in  every five; even fewer go to trial. In the end, only <a href="http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/d9733f1d182257206a2cdeac4f22fa82">one to two of every hundred crimes end in a conviction</a>. Once prosecutors do move forward with a case however, the chances of acquittal are slim, as roughly <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704322004574475492261338318.html">9 in 10 of all suspects brought to court end up in jail</a>.  This has less to do with the stellar cases built around airtight  evidence, and more to do with the underlying system, which is stacked  against defendants – resulting in few safeguards and a de facto  presumption of guilt.</p>
<p>Finally, Mexico doesn’t even have the laws  needed in some cases to prosecute bad behavior. For instance, only eight  of Mexico’s thirty-two states have laws against forced disappearances  and only sixteen have formally criminalized torture. What it does have  is opportunities to limit citizen rights – such as the arraigo  procedure, which lets prosecutors lock up individuals for up to 80 days  if they’re allegedly involved in organized crime, and vaguely defined  “flagrancia” rules that dictate when police officers can make arrests  without a warrant.</p>
<p>The spike in human rights complaints is  worrisome on many levels. First and foremost, it reflects the  government&#8217;s utter failure to protect thousands of citizens from itself.  But more strategically, the abuses described in the report run counter  to the state&#8217;s long-term aims.  In order to “win” the war on organized  crime, Mexico’s government must have society’s support. Egregious human  rights violations will just push away the one force the narcos can’t  match. To end drug related violence, Mexico must construct a truly  democratic rule of law, in which the means to and the ends are one and  the same. To do so, the government must track and punish human rights  abuses and abusers as fervently as it does those on its Most Wanted  lists.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Reads of the Week: Analyzing Humala’s Victory in Peru</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/21/reads-of-the-week-analyzing-humala%e2%80%99s-victory-in-peru/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/21/reads-of-the-week-analyzing-humala%e2%80%99s-victory-in-peru/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2011 17:24:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[left turn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ollanta Humala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unasur]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak state]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1487</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steven Levitsky’s recent article in the Journal of Democracy explains why Humala won the Peruvian elections last summer. He points to a mix of campaign particulars  — most importantly the divisions within the center-right – Humala’s effective shift from the left to the center, and most fundamentally, state weakness (which tends to push voters toward anti-establishment candidates). The Peruvian state has always been weak – as Hillel Soifer’s work has shown.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1486" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1486" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/21/reads-of-the-week-analyzing-humala%e2%80%99s-victory-in-peru/latinreads10-21/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1486" title="latinreads10.21" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/latinreads10.21.jpg" alt="Source: Corporación Latinobarómetro, Informe Anual 2010 (Santiago de Chile, December 2010)." width="490" height="285" /></a><a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/summary/v022/22.4.levitsky.html"></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Source: Corporación Latinobarómetro, Informe Anual 2010 (Santiago de Chile, December 2010).</p></div>
<p><a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/summary/v022/22.4.levitsky.html">Steven Levitsky’s recent article in the Journal of Democracy</a> explains why Humala won the Peruvian elections last summer. He points  to a mix of campaign particulars  — most importantly the divisions  within the center-right – Humala’s effective shift from the left to the  center, and most fundamentally, state weakness (which tends to push  voters toward anti-establishment candidates). The Peruvian state has  always been weak – as <a href="http://lasa.international.pitt.edu/members/congress-papers/lasa2004/files/SoiferHillelDavid_xCD.pdf">Hillel Soifer’s work has shown</a>.</p>
<p>This weakness means Humala faces a huge challenge — and not just from  the Lima-based political and economic establishment that voted against  him. As the graph above shows, Peruvians in generally have little faith  in their government, their parties, their political institutions in  general. This hints at Humala’s bigger problem. He has few tools –  especially outside of  the country’s larger urban centers – to do much  to drastically improve Peruvians’ standard of living. Even if economic  growth continues and can pay for it, delivering social programs, better  schools, and safer streets  will require building a stronger state  (almost from scratch) – quite a tall order.</p>
<p>Still, Humala is off to a decent start – he appointed a <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN1E76L11K20110722">“market-friendly” cabinet</a> that pleased even Alan Garcia,  then raised the minimum wage without  upsetting the economic elite too much, and most recently passed a prior  consultation law many years in the making. Whether he can build and  strengthen the Peruvian state will define his presidency. If he can’t,  it will lead to Levitsky’s most likely scenario – a mediocre government.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Venezuela’s Presidential Race</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/11/venezuela%e2%80%99s-presidential-race/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/11/venezuela%e2%80%99s-presidential-race/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Oct 2011 18:13:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henrique Capriles Radonski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hugo Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[left turn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leopoldo Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[middle class]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Perez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unasur]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today, chances are Hugo Chávez will face off against Henrique Capriles Radonski in the 2012 October presidential elections. The 39-year-old former mayor of Caracas’s Baruta Municipality (2000-2008) and current Miranda state Governor is leading the opposition candidates, and polling just 2 percentage points below Chávez. He is a lawyer who entered politics at the age of 26 to become the youngest member of the Chamber of Deputies until it was dissolved in 1999.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1445" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1445" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/11/venezuela%e2%80%99s-presidential-race/latinvenelections/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1445" title="latinvenelections" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/latinvenelections.jpg" alt="Members of Venezuela's militia and supporters of Venezuela's President Chavez attend a ceremony in Caracas (Jorge Silva/Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="350" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Members of Venezuela&#39;s militia and supporters of Venezuela&#39;s President Chavez attend a ceremony in Caracas (Jorge Silva/Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>Today, chances are Hugo Chávez will face off against Henrique  Capriles Radonski in the 2012 October presidential elections. The  39-year-old former mayor of Caracas’s Baruta Municipality (2000-2008)  and current Miranda state Governor is leading the opposition candidates,  and <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2f2011%2f09%2f10%2fhenrique-capriles-chavez_n_956992.html" target="_blank">polling just 2 percentage points below Chávez</a>.  He is a lawyer who entered politics at the age of 26 to become the  youngest member of the Chamber of Deputies until it was dissolved in  1999.</p>
<p>Capriles appeals to the non-Chavista Left. Following in Lula’s  Brazilian footsteps, he has poured money into education and social  programs, drawing strong support among the lower classes as well as from  a growing contingent of independent voters put off by the  Chávez-centered polarization of Venezuelan politics. Comfortable among  slum dwellers and businessmen alike – and unafraid to don <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.noticias24.com%2factualidad%2fnoticia%2f155273%2fen-fotos-chavez-converso-con-los-gobernadores-de-oposicion%2f" target="_blank">Chávez’s signature Veneuelan flag jacket</a>–  the young candidate has won hearts and minds with his intensity and  obvious passion. He has also attracted Chávez’s ire. In 2004, he was  arrested for <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fwp-dyn%2fcontent%2farticle%2f2006%2f04%2f09%2fAR2006040901102.html%253e" target="_blank">“trespassing, intimidation and ‘violating international principles’”</a> for his involvement in a protest outside the Cuban embassy in the wake  of the 2002 attempted coup. The charges were eventually thrown out and  two months after leaving prison he was reelected to his post as mayor  with 80 percent of the vote.</p>
<p>Yet while a rising star, he faces three major challenges. The first  is the divisions within Venezuela’s anti-Chávez opposition. There are  other worthy competitors — Leopoldo López, the former Mayor of Chacao  Municipality and Pablo Pérez, another young and dynamic governor of the  state of Zulia. While one of these — probably Pérez — may give him a run  for the nomination, the real test will be whether the opposition can  remain united. In the past, their divisions have weakened them perhaps  as much as any moves Chávez has made.</p>
<p>The opposition’s track record has gotten a lot better. In the <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.time.com%2ftime%2fworld%2farticle%2f0%2c8599%2c1861855%2c00.html" target="_blank">2008 regional elections</a> they were able to come together, winning governorships in 5 of  Venezuela’s 22 states (including the two most populous, Miranda and  Zulia). The 2010 Congressional run was their best showing yet. By  uniting behind candidates chosen either by consensus or in local  primaries, they managed to win the popular vote (52%) — though only  40%  of the legislature due to gerrymandering. Signs look good for this  coming year, as last month the three major opposition parties signed a  pact promising to support the winner in February’s primary.</p>
<p>A second challenge is Chávez’s electoral machinations. While the  ballot box itself has not yet been in question, the Chávez  administration has repeatedly tilted the electoral playing field —   arresting prominent opposition leaders, silencing independent media  outlets, and undercutting autonomous institutions such as the National  Electoral Council (CNE). The meddling for 2012 has already started,  beginning with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.americasquarterly.org%2fnode%2f2878" target="_blank">moving up the election date from December to October 2012</a>. This is likely just the first of many measures to take the wind out of opposition sails.</p>
<p>The third, less analyzed challenge is Chávez’s health. At first brush  his potential inability to run for reelection should boost the  opposition’s chances. But it could make it all the much harder. Left  without a popular candidate, hard-line Chavistas might pull the plug on  elections all together. Hugo’s <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/10/11/venezuelas-presidential-race/redir.aspx?C=6b6bac0a2b124891b587cd5423b50b35&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.miamiherald.com%2f2011%2f06%2f26%2f2286078%2fchavezs-brother-talks-of-armed.html" target="_blank">brother Adán has already suggested as much</a>,  saying recently, “It would be inexcusable to limit ourselves [PSUV] to  only the electoral and not see other forms of struggle, including the  armed struggle.” Instead of opening up Venezuela’s political system,  Chávez’s absence might put an end to Venezuela’s democratic trappings  altogether.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Peru’s Balancing Act: Indigenous Rights and Economic Development</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/03/peru%e2%80%99s-balancing-act-indigenous-rights-and-economic-development/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/03/peru%e2%80%99s-balancing-act-indigenous-rights-and-economic-development/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Oct 2011 14:50:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bolivia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ecuador]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baguazo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Evo Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[free trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indigenous]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indigenous rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ollanta Humala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1427</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Andean protesters shout slogans against the government in Lima (Enrique Castro-Mendivil/Courtesy Reuters).
    Andean protesters shout slogans against the government in Lima (Enrique Castro-Mendivil/Courtesy Reuters).

Last month Peruvian President Ollanta Humala signed the popular consultation law, approved unanimously by Congress in August. This new law will require all public and private investors to consult local indigenous groups if and when their activities may affect their communities or ancestral lands. This is an important democratic step forward, reaching out to citizens who have for years been left out of the political process. In Latin America more broadly, incorporating indigenous communities into politics is a key challenge for consolidating democracy. ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1426" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1426" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/10/03/peru%e2%80%99s-balancing-act-indigenous-rights-and-economic-development/latinconsultapopular/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1426" title="latinconsultapopular" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/latinconsultapopular.jpg" alt="Andean protesters shout slogans against the government in Lima (Enrique Castro-Mendivil/Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Andean protesters shout slogans against the government in Lima (Enrique Castro-Mendivil/Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>Last month Peruvian President <a href="http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Humala/promulga/ley/consulta/pueblos/indigenas/elpepuint/20110908elpepuint_8/Tes">Ollanta Humala signed the popular consultation law</a>,  approved unanimously by Congress in August. This new law will require  all public and private investors to consult local indigenous groups if  and when their activities may affect their communities or ancestral  lands. This is an important democratic step forward, reaching out to  citizens who have for years been left out of the political process. In  Latin America more broadly, incorporating indigenous communities into  politics is a key challenge for consolidating democracy. But these types  of laws also have their dangers, specifically potentially negative  effects on investment and economic growth. Peru is only the latest of  the Andean countries to take on the so-called “indigenous question” —  trying to balance economic development with greater social inclusion.</p>
<p>Of its neighbors, Colombia has the longest history and the best track  record. It incorporated indigenous consultation into the 1991  Constitution, and then created a Division of Indigenous Affairs in the  Ministry of the Interior, as well as offices of indigenous affairs  within each of its military commands. To be sure, things haven’t gone  perfectly – for instance some indigenous groups accuse President Santos  of ignoring their interests in the latest national development plan. But  overall Colombia has been successful, enabling a greater voice for all  of its citizens while also attracting billions in investment in oil  production, coal mining, and other industries.</p>
<p>More cautionary tales come from Bolivia and Ecuador. Both nations  have large indigenous populations which historically have been socially  and politically marginalized, and excluded from the economic benefits of  resource extraction — often by foreign companies — taking place on  their land. As these groups have increasingly organized and mobilized,  their distrust and animosity has led to conflicts, violence, and the  fall of more than one democratically elected government.</p>
<p>Current Presidents <a href="http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=56835" target="_blank">Evo Morales of Bolivia</a>, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12944231" target="_blank">Rafael Correa of Ecuador</a> have both struggled to balance inclusion with economic development.  Morales has perhaps gone the farthest in providing a voice for  indigenous groups within the new Constitution, but in return has seen  foreign investment plummet. Since Morales’s election in 2006 Bolivia’s  natural gas output has stagnated, and proven reserves <a href="http://en.mercopress.com/2011/04/11/controversy-in-bolivia-about-the-true-volume-of-proven-natural-gas-reserves" target="_blank">have shrunk by about a third</a>. In <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/201162995115833636.html" target="_blank">Ecuador, Correa began with the backing</a> of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE),  but is now at odds with the country’s largest indigenous organization,  backing away from many of their demands regarding new mining projects.</p>
<p>While Peru’s indigenous communities have yet to organize politically,  there is a growing discontent among these masses, which took a toll on  the previous government’s popularity and led to several uprisings around  natural resources extraction. The most violent of these – known as the  “Baguazo” – occurred during the summer of 2009 in the Amazonian province  of Bagua, where 22 indigenous protesters and 12 police officers died in  <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/1588" target="_blank">clashes over mining projects in the area.</a></p>
<p>For Peru, it remains to be seen whether Humala can channel these pent  up frustrations positively into the political process without scaring  off investment. As the Ecuadorean and Bolivian examples show, more than  just rhetoric — or leftist credentials — are needed. But if the new  government can pull off this delicate balance, it will help support  continued fast paced economic growth.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Reads of the Week: Mixed Views on Mexico’s Economy and Peru’s Security</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/08/11/reads-of-the-week-mixed-views-on-mexico%e2%80%99s-economy-and-peru%e2%80%99s-security/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/08/11/reads-of-the-week-mixed-views-on-mexico%e2%80%99s-economy-and-peru%e2%80%99s-security/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 17:42:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[free trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merida Initiative]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ollanta Humala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Foreign Policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.latintelligence.com/?p=1287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[An IMF report published this week lauds the Mexican economy’s health, and credits robust  fundamentals and good policy choices for its success in weathering the storm of global economic crisis. With even more positive news, a recent study by the Mexican government shows that FDI is still pouring in despite violence, and is actually going to the most dangerous areas. But this doesn’t mean that violence is not having an effect on the economy.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1288" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1288" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/08/11/reads-of-the-week-mixed-views-on-mexico%e2%80%99s-economy-and-peru%e2%80%99s-security/latinreads6/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1288" title="latinreads6" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/latinreads6.jpg" alt="A worker at a luxury cowboy boot factory works on pairs of boots in the central city of Leon (Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">A worker at a luxury cowboy boot factory works on pairs of boots in the central city of Leon (Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>An IMF report published this week lauds the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR080811A.htm">Mexican economy’s health</a>, and credits robust  fundamentals and good policy choices for its success in weathering the storm of global economic crisis. With even more positive news, a recent <a href="http://200.77.231.70/swb/work/models/economia/Resource/1350/1/images/reporteied2.pdf">study by the Mexican government shows that FDI</a> is still pouring in despite violence, and is actually going to the most dangerous areas. But this doesn’t mean that violence is not having an effect on the economy. In <a href="http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/2138">this Americas Quarterly article, Dora Beszterczey and I</a> argue that violence actually has the greatest economic impact on small and medium sized companies, not the multinationals and domestic conglomerates that receive FDI inflows. At this local level there are signs that <a href="http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_18632454?source=most_emailed">heightened violence is taking its toll</a>, increasingly forcing entrepreneurs to pack their bags in search of a safer business environment.</p>
<p>There are a number of interesting profiles of Peru’s new drug chief Ricardo Soberón in the news this week. As I talked about in the past, security issues related to <a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2011/07/06/will-peru-take-on-the-narco-traffickers/">drug trafficking and organized crime will be a huge challenge for Humala</a>. While <a href="http://elcomercio.pe/politica/978520/noticia-asesor-cocalero-ricardo-soberon-nuevo-presidente-devida">El Comercio harshly criticizes the choice</a>, Soberón’s academic bonafides and more inclusive approach (he favors <a href="http://www.larepublica.pe/05-08-2011/asesor-cocalero-ricardo-soberon-es-el-nuevo-jefe-de-devida">eradicating rural poverty before coca plantations</a>, and wants to engage the coca growers movement in the national dialogue about drug policy) may enable the new Peruvian administration to balance their promises of social inclusion with a more comprehensive security policy. For those interested in a more sweeping view of drug policy in the history of U.S.-Peru relations, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Andean-Cocaine-Making-Global-Drug/dp/0807859052">Paul Gootenberg’s book <em>Andean Cocaine: the Making of a Global Drug</em></a> is well worth a read.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with <a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/blogs.cfr.org');" href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil">Latin America’s Moment</a> at the Council on Foreign Relations.</em></p>
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		<title>Reads of the Week: a New Peruvian President, a New U.S. Security Directive, and Some Old Lessons from Colombia</title>
		<link>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/07/28/reads-of-the-week-a-new-peruvian-president-a-new-u-s-security-directive-and-some-old-lessons-from-colombia/</link>
		<comments>http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/07/28/reads-of-the-week-a-new-peruvian-president-a-new-u-s-security-directive-and-some-old-lessons-from-colombia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jul 2011 18:45:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Shannon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Colombia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crime]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drugs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hugo Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[left turn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money laundering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ollanta Humala]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[police forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Foreign Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weapons]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As President Ollanta Humala assumes office today, it looks as if he has chosen to emulate Lula rather than Chavez. His cabinet is full of moderates, and some even see it as leaning center-right. While growth is expected to continue at about 6 percent, the new administration will face many challenges, in particular security and the increasing presence of transnational crime, as well as high levels of inequality.

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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_1256" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 500px"><a rel="attachment wp-att-1256" href="http://www.latintelligence.com/2011/07/28/reads-of-the-week-a-new-peruvian-president-a-new-u-s-security-directive-and-some-old-lessons-from-colombia/latintelreads5/"><img class="size-full wp-image-1256" title="latintelreads5" src="http://www.latintelligence.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/latintelreads5.jpg" alt="Peru's new President Ollanta Humala is sworn in to office in Congress in Lima (Mariana Bazo/Courtesy Reuters)." width="490" height="352" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Peru&#39;s new President Ollanta Humala is sworn in to office in Congress in Lima (Mariana Bazo/Courtesy Reuters).</p></div>
<p>As President Ollanta Humala assumes office today, it looks as if he has chosen to emulate Lula rather than Chávez. <a href="http://www.americas-society.org/articles/3512/Perus_Humala_Picks_Moderates_for_Top_Cabinet_Posts/">His cabinet is full of moderates</a>, and some even see it as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/us-peru-humala-idUSTRE76Q5GF20110727">leaning center-right</a>. While <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9c2116b6-b3b2-11e0-855b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Sehokffo">growth is expected to continue at about 6 percent</a>, the new administration will face many challenges, in particular security and the increasing presence of transnational crime, as well as high levels of inequality.</p>
<p>This week the Obama administration released a new <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime">directive on combating transnational organized crime (TOC).</a> Among its 56 “priority actions” are new and deepened efforts to stop the money laundering and flows supporting these crime networks. New tools include barring TOC members entry into the U.S., <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/25/president-obama-takes-on-international-crime-gangs_n_908893.html">freezing assets and other financial sanctions</a>. The document also expands the role of the Justice Department and FBI in investigating transnational crime more generally. Still, many of the nearly five dozen items seem little more than aspirations– such as the commitment to “stop the illicit flow from the United States of weapons.” But generally, this revamped strategy and more focused game plan is welcome.</p>
<p>Finally William Rempel’s new book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/At-Devils-Table-Insider-Brought/dp/1400068371/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1311866123&amp;sr=8-1">At the Devil’s Table</a>, showcases the role one individual can play in the fight against drug cartels. This gripping read chronicles the life of Jorge Salcedo, a Colombian engineer that rose to be head of security for Miguel Rodriguez Orejuela, a godfather of the Cali cartel during its heyday. The tale tells the true story of Salcedo’s introduction to crime, his rise within one of the most powerful drug cartels in the world, and the actions he ultimately took to help bring it down. It shows the power of one courageous individual, but also the challenges of going it alone in the belly of the criminal underworld. While the Cali cartel is now gone, others have willingly taken its place, and Colombian coca and cocaine continue unimpeded.</p>
<p><em>Published in conjunction with </em><a onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/blogs.cfr.org');" href="http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/"><em>Latin America’s Moment </em></a><em>at the Council on Foreign Relations</em>.</p>
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