LatIntelligence: Analysis on Latin America

Podcast: Regional Diplomacy on the Honduran Crisis

The Council on Foreign Relations published my podcast on the state of emergency declared by Honduran de facto leader Roberto Micheletti on September 28 — the latest in the political crisis that began with the ousting of President Manuel Zelaya in June. Is the United States sending mixed messages on Honduras? Or is it following through on President Obama’s statement at the Summit of the Americas that the United States is no longer going to make unilateral decisions — that it is going to be up to the region to work together through multilateral institutions? Thus far, former Costa Rican president Oscar Arias has mediated the situation, and the Organization of American States (OAS) has taken the lead in managing the crisis. But because the OAS has been quite ineffective, other regional organizations such as Unasur might start to take a more prominent role in regional issues. By assuming a strong position on the need for Zelaya to be reinstated, Brazil has taken ownership of the political stalemate in Honduras, changing the nature of the conflict and the potential solution. But it remains unclear whether the stalemate will end before the elections in Honduras, currently scheduled for November 29. Time, however, is on the side of the de facto government.

Listen to the podcast here