The Line of Fire
How Venezuela came to claim the region’s highest murder rate.
Mention violence in Latin America today and most people think of Mexico. But if you want to talk about murder, the region’s hot spot is somewhere else entirely: Venezuela. After a decade under President Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s homicide rate has increased by about 140 percent, making Venezuela one of the most violent countries in the world. Even in the context of Latin America, where homicide rates hover at three times the global average, Venezuela now holds top rank — by far the highest in South America, with a violent death rate of 48 per 100,000 — more than twice that of Mexico. These murders occur mostly at night and spike every two weeks around payday. Young people are increasingly the victims, three times more likely to be killed today than 10 years ago.
Not surprisingly, Venezuelans see crime and public safety as the No. 1 challenge for their country. According to Latinobarometer, a well-regarded regional polling agency, Venezuela is the only Latin American country where crime is cited as both the most important national and personal issue. The violence was a major issue in last November’s regional elections, with both Chavistas and opposition leaders blaming their opponents for the scourge. Perhaps unsure who was culpable, voters split their allegiance and the vote was a draw.
See the entire article at Foreign Policy Passport here.
Hi Shannon just out of curiosity what did you use for your Mexico murder rate? The most recent thing that looks official that I’ve seen is this
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2008/12/12/tiene-mexico-10-9-asesinatos-por-cada-100-mil-habitantes-al-ano-pnud
which would make Venezuela’s rate more than four times as large. Do you have another source that shows a higher rate?
whoops that link was broken, but this one works:
http://www.milenio.com/node/131117
Nice analysis of this issue. I was surprised, though, to see that you didn’t think that the inflation of the last decade mattered: it brought down police salaries in real terms, increased the use of the black market for dollars (which can be associated with crime) and otherwise distorted economic incentives…
I agree that low police salaries contribute to crime levels – something that Venezuela shares with other countries in the region, but which is particularly acute due to some of the highest inflation rates in the hemisphere. Thanks for adding that factor in.
Dear PC,
Thank you for your comment. The data I used for this article comes from national government sources. However, government webpages often don’t make this data readily available, so I went through local think-tanks and universities in order to get to the governments’ numbers.
In the case of Mexico, I went through the Mexican security think tank ICESI which has this very useful table with homicide rates for the past 10 years (http://www.icesi.org.mx/documentos/estadisticas/estadisticas/denuncias_homicidio_1997_2007.pdf).
In the case of Venezuela, the Universidad Metropolitana has a great Powerpoint presentation with extensive data (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.accesoalajusticia.org%2Fdocumentos%2Fgetbindata.php%3Fdcfid%3D137&ei=bZgeSoO5Goy-M5rwlfQF&usg=AFQjCNHtajwC7OPfapVLVtzxr-BwyF2_qA&sig2=csMEy92yb_Zdpf7KVFnGWA).
Best,
Shannon
Just to add something. About a month ago I actually watched as the Director of the CIPC (roughly the FBI in Venezuelan terms) state on TV that in his estimation about 30-35% of crimes are being committed by the police themselves.
The homicide rate is just the tip of the iceberg.
Many “express kidnappings” are ocurring every day. THis is where you are held for a few hours until your family can get what the kidnappers figure is a reasonable sum in a very short time frame, usually 4-6 hours.
Their modus operandi suggests a high degree of coordination and planning, which is not what your run of the mill criminal usually does. It is suggestive of para police/para military training.
A very large number of these kidnappings also go unreported to police, for the very reasons you mention in the article such as politicized tribunals, etc.
Dr. O’Neil:
Very nicely done. Thoughtful, scholarly, but accessible.
I even felt obliged to summarize it on my blog as well (http://globalcrim.blogspot.com/2009/05/murder-capital-of-world.html)
Not as good as your original, no doubt.
-Randy Borum
Hi Shannon,
Thanks for the heads up. Thats a great site from ICESI. One thing that probably explains the difference is that ICESI’s rate comes from homicidio doloso as well as homicidio culposo, but the latter is essentially manslaughter or any other crime in which someone is killed without intent. Unless I’m wrong, most murder rates don’t include accidents.